Move over once, move over twice

Transforming the grid

David Leitch & Paul Bandarian

We are here to make a difference

ocean_heat

Takehome

Rooftop can’t do it all
Tasmania and QLD are essential to an efficient decarbonised NEM
More solar probably means more firming and more gas

Three portfolios for a renewable NEM

Best wind and solar portfolio.
- Best = maximise (average output/variability of output)
Lowest cost portfolio
- Much more solar and gas
ITK’s preferred portfolio, (perfect is the enemy of the good)
- minimises gas (ie carbon), cost is still low, Sharpe ratio high

Compared

Renewable NEM choices. Source:ITK

ITK preferred location map

ITK Preferred location. Source: ITK

Average day

Source:ITK

What we’ve built

Existing. Source:www.renewmap.com

What we building right now

Under_construction. Source: www.renewmap.com

Waiting for the gun

Develpment www.renewmap.com

Transmission plans

Transmission_build

Widely varying cost estimates

transmission_unit_cost

Over 50% is certain by 2025/2026

thermal_v_renewables

7 GW under construction + 3 years of rooftop growth = 25 TWh

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